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How probable is 'probable'?

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Alan H
Posts: 24067
Joined: July 3rd, 2007, 10:26 pm

How probable is 'probable'?

#1 Post by Alan H » August 14th, 2015, 11:39 am

Alan Henness

There are three fundamental questions for anyone advocating Brexit:

1. What, precisely, are the significant and tangible benefits of leaving the EU?
2. What damage to the UK and its citizens is an acceptable price to pay for those benefits?
3. Which ruling of the ECJ is most persuasive of the need to leave its jurisdiction?

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animist
Posts: 6522
Joined: July 30th, 2010, 11:36 pm

Re: How probable is 'probable'?

#2 Post by animist » August 14th, 2015, 11:51 am

I "seriously doubt" that the concept of probability in the real world (as opposed to mathematical probability) makes much sense in the absence of evidence and an agreement on what counts as evidence. One of the weakest parts of Dawkins's "The God Delusion" was his attempt to probabilise God's existence, IMO (probably)

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Dave B
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Joined: May 17th, 2010, 9:15 pm

Re: How probable is 'probable'?

#3 Post by Dave B » August 14th, 2015, 12:50 pm

animist wrote:I "seriously doubt" that the concept of probability in the real world (as opposed to mathematical probability) makes much sense in the absence of evidence and an agreement on what counts as evidence. One of the weakest parts of Dawkins's "The God Delusion" was his attempt to probabilise God's existence, IMO (probably)
Not sure about the, animist, but not sure that I can explain why atm!

I think the missing linkmis "category" rather than, or as well as, "evidence". Asked if I would be able to climb the stairs three times, in succession, without stopping I would offer,, "No chance". The combination of experience and a cstegory of exertion I am familiar with makes, I feel, my estimate quite accurate! If asked to do the same exercise with three minutes between each trip I might offer, "Possibly". With five minute intervals, "Probably."

I do not need a maths degree for this :D (In fact this kind of maths, along with stats, were weakest branches of my weakest subject!)
"Look forward; yesterday was a lesson, if you did not learn from it you wasted it."
Me, 2015

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animist
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Re: How probable is 'probable'?

#4 Post by animist » August 14th, 2015, 2:22 pm

Dave B wrote:
animist wrote:I "seriously doubt" that the concept of probability in the real world (as opposed to mathematical probability) makes much sense in the absence of evidence and an agreement on what counts as evidence. One of the weakest parts of Dawkins's "The God Delusion" was his attempt to probabilise God's existence, IMO (probably)
Not sure about the, animist, but not sure that I can explain why atm!

I think the missing linkmis "category" rather than, or as well as, "evidence". Asked if I would be able to climb the stairs three times, in succession, without stopping I would offer,, "No chance". The combination of experience and a cstegory of exertion I am familiar with makes, I feel, my estimate quite accurate! If asked to do the same exercise with three minutes between each trip I might offer, "Possibly". With five minute intervals, "Probably."

I do not need a maths degree for this :D (In fact this kind of maths, along with stats, were weakest branches of my weakest subject!)
that makes perfect sense to me, Dave. If the parameters are limited to one person (preferably oneself) and are limited to repeated experiences, then you are right - probably (oh dear! :D )

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