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Grexit?

...on serious topics that don't fit anywhere else at present.
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Nick
Posts: 11027
Joined: July 4th, 2007, 10:10 am

Re: Grexit?

#61 Post by Nick » July 10th, 2015, 3:05 pm

Latest post of the previous page:

Dave B wrote:As usual it is money that makes the decisions; people, quality etc. come a poor second.
I don't know what you think should happen at this point....? There really is no alternative, given the dire situation Greece is in, made dangerously worse by Syriza, who seem to think that they can make water flow uphill, just by shouting in the streets. The problem is not "money", it is the total failure of the Grand European Project. You can't have monetary union without political union, and no-one favours pan-European political union any more.

Nick
Posts: 11027
Joined: July 4th, 2007, 10:10 am

Re: Grexit?

#62 Post by Nick » July 13th, 2015, 2:39 pm

So, we have at last arrived at the only logical place, given the idiocy of the Euro. And democracy has been trumped by reality. The added tragedy for Greece is that Syriza, with their lunatic "no to austerity" rhetoric, made everything so much worse in a matter of a few months. Before they were elected, growth had just about begun to emerge from the ruins. Not only has Syriza snuffed this out, but they have brought on further recession, and crippled, maybe for a generation, the ability of anyone, whether Greek or international, to have sufficient trust in Greece to invest or develop businesses. It really is awful.

thundril
Posts: 3607
Joined: July 4th, 2008, 5:02 pm

Re: Grexit?

#63 Post by thundril » July 13th, 2015, 2:52 pm

Nick wrote:
thundril wrote:How about THIS
It may surprise you (it certainly surprised me!) but I agree with much of this analysis.
. . .

. . .
:boohoo: I thought you said there was a solution!

Greece (the young couple) has already had loans from the "nice aunt". Greece has been lent billions where no lender other than "family" would lend. And "the young couple" have demonstrated that they can't be trusted to change their life-style so that they can afford to repay the loan. There is still absolutely no prospect of Greece ever repaying its loans. So we are at the point where the family insurance kicks in. ie the tax-payers of the Euro-zone are bailing out the errant family members. Except that, they are refusing to renew the insurance because of the appalling claims record. There is no solution being proposed here at all.

Varoufakis is not proposing a method of repaying Greece's existing debt (he clearly wants most of that written off) but proposing a means by which, in future, the Euro economies can manage different levels of borrowing-need and repayment-capability across many diverse states.
The gist is that Europe can be saved without cohabitation under some, hastily assembled, oppressive, Federal structure. All it takes is a rational re-assignment of existing institutions. The burning question, however, remains: Are we prepared to accept that neither divorce nor the current confederacy are decent options for our troubled family?
The relationship has irretrievably broken down, but the feuding couple cannot even afford to go their separate ways. They should not have succumbed to the lust of the European project in the first place. And that applies to the extended family too, who encouraged and participated in the doomed marriage from the very beginning.
'How do I get to London?'
'Ah well, you shouldn't have started from where you did.'
Very constructive, Nick!

Nick
Posts: 11027
Joined: July 4th, 2007, 10:10 am

Re: Grexit?

#64 Post by Nick » July 13th, 2015, 3:46 pm

The relationship has irretrievably broken down, but the feuding couple cannot even afford to go their separate ways. They should not have succumbed to the lust of the European project in the first place. And that applies to the extended family too, who encouraged and participated in the doomed marriage from the very beginning.
'How do I get to London?'
'Ah well, you shouldn't have started from where you did.'
Very constructive, Nick!
Indeed, Thundril! I should perhaps have put in the extra sentence "so, though neither party trusts the other, they are yoked together, and must find a way to co-exist". Even if they hate each others guts.
Varoufakis is not proposing a method of repaying Greece's existing debt (he clearly wants most of that written off) but proposing a means by which, in future, the Euro economies can manage different levels of borrowing-need and repayment-capability across many diverse states.
Isn't that a "wouldn't start from here" response too? And more crucially, he is offering nothing to convince anyone that Greek ways will change in future. Yes, I think it is inevitable that there will be some sort of relief, but it is much more likely to come from interest rate reductions than capital write-offs. (Same thing, different words) But so far, he has offered no solution which fits the problem. And the EU, led by Germany, will continue to hold the Greek's feet to the fire, to ensure there is no wiggle room.

My concern that this may end in a military way still stands. Not that Germany will invade, but that Greece may depend on their military, suspending democracy. After all, the democratic referendum didn't work out that well in the end. Not very likely, but still a possibility.

thundril
Posts: 3607
Joined: July 4th, 2008, 5:02 pm

Re: Grexit?

#65 Post by thundril » July 13th, 2015, 4:33 pm

An interesting report from 2010

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